Question
Out of curiosity because I came across a comment of someone not suggesting an american to go to Spain in any case sh** hits the fan if US goes to war then things would get initially worse in the EU first. Considering the US-Russia New Start Treaty deadline on February 2026, the possible debt and monetary crisis, on top of emerging AGI (Artificial general intelligence) predicted it’d be around 2027. What is the current state of Spain as of now and any reports of possible downturns for the country in the next 5 years?
Answers
These are the answers from Spainguru’s Facebook group members:
“Spain, at present, is fine. It’s in the top 2-3 growth economies in the EU over the past several years, and despite typical political grumpiness and a contingent of far-right ppl trying to gain power, the odds are that the country’s overall policies will continue bouncing between center-right and center-left for the foreseeable future.
The global economy might take a big dump. AI and AGI are a threat all over. The economy tends to be cyclical anyway. Spain has some structural issues. Housing is a challenge and not subject to a quick fix. But Spain has a lot going for it. Even in a war, it’s in decent shape; it is essentially self-sufficient in food production, it has a lot of energy production now that a lot of investment has been done in wind and solar… Honestly, you could do a lot worse than Spain.”
“I love the fact that here, you can be yourself. Everything is so relaxed. At least where I live, Granada province. Being from Paris I was tired of the tight-jacketed attitude I suppose.”
“Don’t let anxiety dictate your life. Are there issues for the EU in the next 5 years? Yes. Germany and Poland are preparing for a draft. Britain is preparing to call up retired military up to age 65. They are preparing for a full scale war in the next 2-3 years. Preparing doesn’t mean that it’s likely to happen.”
“Possible war scenarios is not a good reason to go live in Spain. It is a total change of culture that I don’t believe most Americans are prepared for, and most cannot assimilate here or anywhere, largely because they have been raised to believe that “their” ego centric reality is all there is, and a lack of general knowledge of history makes it almost imposible.
That being said, what happens in the US in the next few years or in the world at large, has little to do with this personal decision. Your personal finances are the main factor, and those rarely depend on anything other than how much you have and how you personally manage them. I will say that living in a country whose people are largely friendlier, more socially conscious and less aggressive, than in the US, would probably make any catastrophic situation more humane.”
“Only big negative is its heavy dependency on tourism. Spanish people are resourceful however and handle crises quite well because of strong family bonds. COVID was a prime example.”
“There is absolutely concern about potential world conflict, but not from where you think – it’s in the Pacific Theater. In 2027, Taiwan’s treaty with China expires and there are clear intel signals that China is preparing something significant. The US has promised to defend Taiwan. This would be a tipping point – there are not many good options right now. That said, we’re going to move as soon as possible so we are in our Spain home when things start declining.
I want to be where I originally decided to retire and will not spend precious time worrying about what I cannot control. Make the decision that is right for you.”
“Based on the comments so far not being taken seriously. May get caught with pants down. Right now our passport can be a target. Being at odds with the EU, and there are Spanish officials that have objected to the current state of affairs, the scenario you ask about is very real, and very serious. Were this aggression to be taken to a breaking point there may be a request to leave and or those that stay may be looked at differently.
Also, if your funds prevail from sources not in EU that too will pose a problem. Where is one safer would be a good question, how many depend on you, who will receive you with a blue passport, are you better off at home??? This is not a head in the sand moment in time. Look at Ukraine prior to what happened. They were in disbelief that it could happen but it did and still is. That is everyone everywhere now. Do the homework yourself. There are plenty of sources and ways to analyze the validity of the information.
Here we are all armchair quarterbacks. However, the tension and the instability is real.”
“Not something I worry about too much, although with having a US base in Spain, it crosses my mind, but I think we are okay over here. The most important thing for me is to be aware, but not to be obsessively thinking, watching, reading about all of the unknowns. There has always been and will always be an insurmountable number of them.”
Conclusion
The conversation shows a wide range of views, but the most consistent theme is that Spain is currently seen as stable and livable, even while acknowledging global uncertainty and the possibility of wider conflict.
Several members emphasized practical realities: Spain has strengths (like food production and energy investment), but also structural challenges (especially housing and reliance on tourism). Others argued that personal readiness matters more than geopolitics—things like finances, language, and adapting to culture can be the real deciding factors.
If you’re moving to spain because of war fears, the takeaway from the thread is to balance awareness with planning: do your homework, build a financial cushion and backup plan, and don’t let worst-case scenarios be the only reason you relocate. This article is based on personal opinions from the Spainguru community and is not legal advice.
